Freeview, the way millions of us have watched free telly for over two decades, is heading for a steep decline – and new figures put a number on just how steep.
By 2034, Freeview could be the main service in fewer than 1 million UK homes, down from 9.7 million today. Its broadband-based successor, Freely, is forecast to climb to 10.5 million in the same period. In other words: a near-total changing of the guard in free television, inside ten years.
That’s the picture painted by fresh research published today – and it arrives just as the government prepares its own plans for the future of traditional TV, and the conditions for an eventual shutdown of Freeview and Freesat.
Now, the important caveat before anyone worries: this is a forecast. If you watch through an aerial today, nothing is changing on your telly this week or this year. But it’s a revealing snapshot of where things are heading – so let’s walk through what’s been said, what it means, and how worried (or not) you need to be.
A Quick Freely Recap
Instead of pulling channels in through an aerial (like Freeview) or a satellite dish (like Freesat), Freely delivers them over your broadband connection. You get BBC, ITV, Channel 4, 5 and 60-plus other channels in a single programme guide, with seven days of catch-up built in.
The idea is that it eventually replaces Freeview and Freesat as the standard way Britain watches free telly – no aerial, no dish, just your internet connection.
Freely launched in April 2024, but for the first 18 months you could only get it by buying a brand new smart TV from brands like Hisense, Panasonic, Amazon Fire TV and others.
That changed in November 2025, when the first standalone box – the Netgem Pleio – arrived, letting you add Freely to any TV with an HDMI port.
It’s since been joined by the Manhattan Aero and the recording-capable Humax Aura EZ, so there are now a few ways in without replacing your whole television.
The big catch, and the one our readers raise most often: Freely doesn’t let you record anything. There’s a short live-pause buffer and that’s it.
The pitch is that catch-up services replace recording – but as we’ve written before, that’s not enough for some, since programmes vanish from catch-up when licensing deals expire, and you can’t build your own library.
A Run Of Forecasts, All Pointing The Same Way
Today’s research isn’t the first attempt to predict when traditional TV bows out. It’s the latest in a series, and they’ve all nudged in the same direction.
Back in May 2024, Ofcom set out three possible futures for Freeview: upgrade it with newer technology, shrink it down to a handful of essential channels (a so-called “nightlight” service), or phase it out altogether in favour of internet-delivered TV. No decision was made, but the direction was clear enough.
Then, in September 2025, Everyone TV published research suggesting Freely would become the UK’s largest single TV platform by 2030, reaching 7 million homes.
That same research found two-thirds of Freely users had already unplugged their aerials entirely, happily watching Freely’s smaller channel selection rather than topping up with full Freeview (the two Freely boxes – Pleio and Aero – don’t even have aerial ports).
In January 2026 came a study commissioned by Sky, which argued Freeview could be switched off by 2034 with only around 330,000 households needing help to get online – far fewer than the government’s earlier estimate of 1.8 million.
Sky, of course, has a commercial interest in seeing traditional TV disappear, so that one came with its own health warning.
It’s worth being honest about something here: these forecasts use different years, different measurements and different assumptions, so you can’t line them up like a league table and say one “beat” another.
What they share is a direction of travel – fewer people stuck without internet TV, and Freely steadily rising as Freeview fades.
The Government Is Now Drawing Up Real Plans
What’s changed recently is that this stopped being purely theoretical.
As we reported last month, the government is actively preparing plans to eventually switch off Freeview and Freesat and move the country to internet-delivered TV.
A green paper – a consultation document setting out proposals before any final decision – has reportedly been signed off by Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy and Technology Secretary Liz Kendall, and could appear within weeks.
For now, traditional TV is legally guaranteed to continue until at least 2034, and campaigners are pushing to extend that to 2040. So even on the most aggressive timeline, we’re talking the better part of a decade away. That’s the backdrop against which today’s new numbers arrive.
The New Research: What It Actually Says
The new forecasts come from independent analysts 3 Reasons, the same firm behind that September 2025 projection. 3 Reasons gave Everyone TV permission to publish the update as the government weighs up its decision.
Here are the headline findings, in plain English.
Freeview is on the way down. Today it’s the main service on 9.7 million TV sets. By 2034, the research forecasts that it will fall to under 1 million – a drop of more than 90% in less than a decade.
Freely is on the way up. It’s expected to be in 10.5 million UK households by 2034, as people either buy new TVs with Freely built in or add one of the standalone boxes.
Put those two together and you’ve got the heart of the story: one free TV platform handing over to another, with the internet replacing the aerial.
(Strictly speaking, they’re measured slightly differently – the Freeview figure counts main TV sets, the Freely figure counts households – but the overall picture of a changeover is clear.)
And Freely is growing fast. It’s now passed 1 million users, having doubled from 500,000 between September and December 2025.
The Part That Matters Most: Who Gets Left Behind?
This is the question that actually keeps people up at night, and it’s the most important part of the research.
The big worry about ditching aerials has always been the same: what happens to people who don’t have broadband, can’t afford it, or don’t feel confident using streaming? Older and lower-income viewers, in particular.
Today’s research argues that group is shrinking faster than anyone expected. The number of homes without broadband was predicted to fall 10% between 2023 and 2025. Instead, it fell 30%, and now sits at 1.2 million.
Looking ahead, the analysts forecast that just 220,000 homes will still be without broadband by 2034 – around a quarter of the 800,000 that an earlier 2024 study (for the government) had predicted.
One honest caveat: that 2024 study was worked on by the same analysts now revising the figure down, so this isn’t a fresh, independent voice arriving at the same conclusion – it’s the same team updating their own homework based on how quickly broadband has spread.
Still, the underlying trend is real. According to TV measurement body BARB, 84% of homes now connect their TV to the internet, up from 66% in 2020. More and more of us are already watching this way, often without thinking about it.
There’s also a notable difference from the Sky study. Sky’s modelling assumed the government would need to announce a firm switch-off date around 2027 to get people moving.
Today’s forecast assumes no such announcement and no new help with broadband costs – and still predicts the transition by 2035. The analysts say that if the government did step in with affordability support, the unconnected number could fall even faster.
There’s a sting in the tail to all this, though. A low “left behind” figure is reassuring if you’re worried about vulnerable viewers – but it’s also exactly the argument for switching Freeview off sooner.
If only a few hundred thousand homes will still need an aerial by 2034, the government and broadcasters can reasonably ask why so much money should go on keeping the entire Freeview (and Freesat) transmitter network running for them – rather than spending a smaller sum helping that group get online, and putting the rest towards broadband and Freely as the replacement.
In other words, the same data that says “barely anyone will be stranded” can quietly become the case for pulling the plug earlier, not later.
And it’s worth remembering that Everyone TV runs all three platforms – Freeview, Freesat and Freely – so it isn’t picking a winner so much as managing the shift from the old way of watching to the new one, while also sitting on the government’s Future TV Taskforce.
This is research that supports a transition its commissioner is already helping to steer.
So What Does This Mean For You?
If you’re a Freeview viewer reading this and feeling uneasy, here’s the practical takeaway.
Nothing is being switched off right now. Freeview is protected until at least 2034, and possibly longer. Your aerial still works, your channels are still there, and you don’t need to rush out and buy anything.
Freesat’s position is a little less certain – it depends on satellite capacity and the broadcasters’ willingness to keep funding it, which is a separate question we’ve covered elsewhere – but it isn’t disappearing imminently either.
What this research really tells us is about momentum. The companies and the government (and, frankly, the market) have, in effect, already decided which way this is going – towards internet-delivered TV – and the debate now is about timing and safety nets, not whether it happens at all.
For most people, who already stream at least some of the time, the eventual change will barely register. For the minority who rely entirely on an aerial, who don’t have reliable broadband, or who can’t easily afford a monthly internet bill (broadband averages around £27 a month, on top of the TV Licence), the stakes are higher – and that’s exactly the group these forecasts, and the government’s upcoming plans, will be judged on.
But as mentioned, numbers this low could cut both ways. They’re meant to reassure – see, almost nobody will be left behind – but they could just as easily hand the government a reason to act faster, deciding it’s not worth propping up Freeview and Freesat for a shrinking handful of homes when that money could shore up broadband and Freely instead.
A forecast that fewer people will need the old way of watching is also, quietly, a forecast that the old way is easier to switch off.
So no, Freeview isn’t going anywhere tomorrow. But the direction has been pointing one way for a while now, and today’s research is another marker on that road – and possibly, depending on how the government reads it, one that brings the destination a little closer.
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Freely still does not have itv2+1, itv3+1 itv4+1 as streaming channels – you only get the crappy low-res aerial stations which in the case of itv3+1 & itv4+1 only run for a few hours in the early hours.
There are other channels like this too.
The Virgin streambox has these stations running 24/7 in decent quality.
Freely should be an upgrade in every respect if they want it to be competitive and appealing. Bandwidth is no longer the bottleneck in the way it is with freeview, so there is no excuse!
I have to disagree with you! There are masses of programmes available on Freeview; I often record excellent old shows on Channel 20 (drama) plus wonderful stuff from BBC 4
Freesat is exactly than, I use a satellite box and it’s perfect. Someone eksr suggested a vpn so I won’t rush to do anything for now. A french service doesn’t have uk channels. Some of the programmes are american for example Colombo which I didn’t like 40 years ago! But they use french voice overs which is awful.😖
But I appreciate your help very much. Thank you
Thank you for your message. The biggest problem like Brexit is things get done in the UK and people who have left fir another country organise everything and it works well, then out of the blue through no faulr of our own we suffer!
I have always found freesat to be great here, and last month needed to buy a new box as mine was 15 years old and started not changing channels to record.
Freely sounds fine as an alternative when freesat disappears but I live in a village with poor Internet etc I have no computer because I have absolutely on need for one. My mobile phone works in some places but not everywhere because reception us poor in the area, so even if I can get freely I am not sure it will be reliable.
Freesat is a UK thing, so I expected to be able to put in a UK postcode like I do for freesat and all would be ok, but no one has been able to confirm that I will have freely or not.
Yes it will be expensive and I object to it being called frerly when it’s far from free! But the important thing is will it be available if you are not in the UK like freesat and freeview?
As you know Freesat, and Freeview, are British television services, and not intended for reception outside of Britain. But, both “suffer” from their signals “spilling over” borders to other countries. Luckily for you, you’ve been able to take advantage of that. Unfortunately for you, when they are replaced by Freely, that advantage will disappear, and Freely should only be available in Britain.
Through the internet, it is possible to access services from one country to another country. The usual way of doing this, is by using a Virtual Private Network (V.P.N.) (which tricks the system into “thinking” you’re in Britain, similar to putting in a British postcode!). The problem is that V.P.N.s are often used for “piracy”, or to infringe on copyrights. Consequently, broadcasters, internet service providers, regulators, and governments, are clamping down on this activity. So it will be unlikely, or difficult, or impossible, in future, but no-one can say for certain at this time.
Though, in my opinion, a French-based service would be a better option, or a more likely option.
Actually, internet-by-satellite MIGHT be another possibility.
I have little knowledge of internet-by-satellite systems, and no experience of them. So, I just Googled that idea. It seems to be even more difficult than a simple Virtual Private Network (V.P.N.) solution.
So my opinion remains, a French-based service would be best.
You really are despicable! You have replied in the rudest possible posts to several people today, when you are clearly ignorant, and know nothing. You really need to get a life of your own as if you can’t help people with grnuine questions you should just shut your vile, spiteful mouth!
Firstly I suggest you learn to write before attacking me with your pathetic excuse for a post. I was asking a sensible question and not inviting morons to write illiterately about things they obviously know nothing about!
I am fully aware Freely is British hence my question! Freesat is also a British free-to-air satellite television service, first formed as a joint venture between the BBC and ITV plc and now owned by Everyone TV (itself owned by all of the four UK public service broadcasters, BBC, ITV, Channel 4 and Channel 5). So am obviously better informed than you! Which isn’t though saying much.
There is simply less and less on freeview as time goes on. This time last year there was more on the schedule, as there was 6 months ago. Channels are being removed and content is less and less. There is no new content and now even regular go to repeats are no longer available like classic tv series. Instead it is just generic garbage like Police shows, Border Patrol and constant repeats of games shows or recycles of old game shows with a modern twist.
There aren’t even much repeats of Cheers or Heartbeat anymore as broadcasters simply won’t pay royalty fees or simply won’t put the money into making new content as viewing numbers are declining anyway.
More and more channels are being turned off, will there by anything left by this time next year?
Hi, i have been using freeview since it launched a long time ago, I want freeview to be extended to 2050, i can’t afford broadband, i like recording different programs on my freeview plus recorder and i like watching them back , i don’t want freeview to go, i want it to stay, if freeview went, a lot of people will get angry, and the government will have a fight on their hands, the government needs to reconsider and think, a lot of people including me will get very upset, people can’t afford broadband at all, I will have nothing to watch , if freeview collapsed, people will start protesting and causing problems for the government, so the government needs to think ,
You may want to be careful Steven, you may be flagged as encouraging insurrection. I mean what, starting a protest over Chase the Chasers or Corrie. You’d get more attention if you started a fight at the local chip shop. Nobody gives a rat’s ass. If you have been watching freeview for a long time then surely you must have a back catalog of series and recordings and lots of hard drives full to capacity with all sorts of olden goldies. Just put The Golden Girls, the Cosby Show and Cheers on one continous loop. Freeview and it’s accompanying infrastrucutre is obselete trunk and it simply isn’t viable to keep it in service. It would literally cost too much to replace and by the times it is replaced it’s clients will be long dead anyway. No money or funding is being put into television production anyway as viewing numbers are declining anyway, never mind some garbage service that is well past it’s sell by date anyway. Just use a HAM radio with those you may start this insurrection with shout out the window or send smoke signals.
Thank you for your message
There would not be enough demand here for a specific English speaking service as a lot of programmes on French television are British or American but dubbed.
I object to the cost, because I don’t need internet for a computer or anything else. I have no problem with freesat which is just that free! Calling something freely is misrepresentation and it should be called not free you now payly perhaps 😉
At the moment living on a retirement pension of 870€ approx a month paying 26€ a month extra is not easy and if freesat ends I will have to go without television at all. I can’t get English newspapers as I am 45 minutes from a large town where I could buy them, so do everything on my phone. It’s not easy at almost 70 years old. But thank you for your advice 🙏
In Britain, some services, like Sky or Freeview Play, have a section of channels (usually called “International”) which have foreign channels and-or foreign-language channels (for example, in Urdu or Hindi for South Asian people).
Another possible solution for you, might be a French service which has an “International” section, which includes British channels and-or English-language channels.
Again, your biggest problem would seem to be the cost.
I don’t want freely as it needs a new TV. Mine does not connect with broadband
I still don’t know what will happen to people like myself who have freesat at the moment cannot afford internet charges and live in France.
Will I get freely here eventually or not?
If not I will not be able to watch British television channels so will be completely cut off from the outside world. I am over 70, and entirely alone in the world. Television is all I have for company and freesat has worked well for the past 20 plus years. I don’t have a computer so don’t need broadband Internet or anything fancy. Living in France what will happen to people like myself?
I think your best hope is that someone starts a new service in France for people who want British television and-or English language television. It could be Freely, or anyone else!
It’s likely that it would be internet based, and NOT free. And it would only happen, if there was enough demand for such a service, to make it commercially viable.
Your biggest problem would seem to be the cost.
Freeview is a British based service, if you live in France get over it, get a newspaper of start watching French broadcasts or start a vinyard. Pick up a secone hand computer. Alternatively go live in the UK. This situation is no different to other examples of technological obsolescence.
If you live in France how can you possibly expect to rely on a British service?
If all tv is going to come into.your home only via the internet then my recent experience of an outage of 10 days (thank you Hyperoptic) bodes ill for the future.
I watch through Sky Q. All streaming channels plus catchup & on demand were unavailable.
The average cost of Broadband is now £29 per month, with a rise each year of £3.50, so by 2034 that will be at least £58 per month, or more, plus the cost of a TV licence. This could put watching TV out of reach of a lot of people
No one likes change but the fears fade away especially when there are ten years before it all happens. Freely is an example of steps that can be taken to adapt to such changes. May not be perfect now but it’s early days.
Pam Hunter
It isn’t just the broadband, it is the TV. Mine, like my Humax box (and me), is just a bit too old to connect to broadband. The thought of no recording and thus being able to keep films etc. is depressing. I really don’t want to have to buy an all singing all dancing TV to be able to use freely.
You can record buy VHS recorder on Ebay a digital to analouge converter box on temu and a freely set top box !
The wife hates this whole thing, and struggles to use more than one remote control. She’s always struggled since having a digital switchover box.
Our old (15 year old) tv packed up late last year and I replaced it with the latest LG tv, but that LG tv has neither freeview play, or Freely, so we still need a box for Freely.
I won’t be rushing out to but another TV for a while.
While technology will always keep developing I can’t help thinking that this is all driven by the industry and govt for their own selfish reasons rather than their customers.
First off, you won’t be able to record anymore so no building your own library of favourite shows. This seems to be the desire of all media. (How long will you be able to buy a paper book before you have to subscribe to a kindle device which as soon as the subscription ends so does your library?)
Second, no skipping adverts. (Mute button is going to get worn out in our house.) Thirdly, mass monitoring of what exactly are you watching. (Useful for licence information and tv companies seeking to sell adverts.) Mass surveillance seems to be the modern way of both govt and their friends in industry.
For the last twenty years since the big switch over from analogue
to digital, tv has all been about delivery systems and apps. How to access platforms on a growing number of devices. Perhaps it’s about time to start putting some more thought into improving the quality of content. There are hundreds of channels and very little good content to enjoy. The same dumbed down content with the same old tired faces and ideas.
My 88 year old father has no broadband and has never used a computer. He is not remotely interested in starting to learn it at his time of life. He has a basic emergency mobile phone that does calls and texts but no internet. He has no email address. He has a tv from an aerial. Can’t wait to tell him he is going to have to pay a broadband connection of £20 – £30 per month to watch a bit of telly. The telly will be going to the tip. I suppose the good news for the govt is he will probably be dead by 2034 so he won’t have to bother with it.
Hi Mark,
You have expressed my thoughts on this article practically word for word.
The way programme content is going I’m beginning to wonder whether I would want to watch what’s on offer in 2034.
All the best.
As a concept, Freely is a great idea, but that’s where it’s positives end.
Delivery is a mess. Picture quality isn’t uniform, with a variety of quality standards and shocking audio. Availability is still limited to new TV’s, instead of making it available via an app-based option for existing devices – creating a place where growing electrical waste is a byproduct of this new platform is a huge red flag.
If you want to replace the aerial thats great, but making the replacement something which requires/mandates a broadband connection makes it another problem (Same applies to replacing satellite)
While reliability in broadband has gone through the roof in stability, it still does drop out randomly at times which isn’t acceptable and should something cause the cabinet to be taken out, that leaves many without anything for some time as they await repairs, which isn’t quick.
There’s so much to go wrong, yet advertising this as the replacement seem’s extremely shortsighted when we have a system, while not perfect – isn’t at risk in the same way handing everything over to a broadband connection is.
Freeview must be maintained and made fit for 2026 – the Vaizey plan in full would be a start!
I agree with comments about older people. Broadband cost is okish when it’s used in different ways but it’s expensive as just an ariel replacement, add to that the license fee and your in for something called freely at £45 a month. I can see people being left behind and a further increase in people who no longer need the license.
When Colour TV was introduced in 1967, the belief was that radio would decline and die by the 1990s at the latest.
I cannot help but wonder to myself, when I read the report talking about the year 2034, that, by then, there will probably be another, newer, service replacing Freely.
For those of us who hate ads with a vengeance, replacing recordable/ad-skippable Freeview+ with you-must-watch-ads Freely holds little attraction — though you can see why the advertisers want to do this… 🙁
I’m just not going to sit through 15mins of ads in a 1-hour programme, which means more BBC and less watching commercial channels…
I completely agree!
For a large part of rural UK, we are unlikely to get full fibre FTTP, so broadband will not be a good quality option. Also, the user interface using SKY Q satellite dishes is so much more slick / instantaneous than using a broadband interface like Sky Glass. At the moment, whenever I use Amazon Prime (not that often) I get really annoyed at the slow, clunky response times to rewind / fast-forward; broadband for TV watching just does not have the finesse of the instant and accurate Sky Q responses.
What about dissabled and elderly that cant have or use the internet?. If Freely is going to take over, it should come with free broadband router for Freely use only.
And if they get free broadband for tv how are they going to login to itvx or whatever if they have no computers smart phones or email?
That is indeed a silly requirement to have to sign in to itvx before you can even tune in to the the freely itv internet channels.
Non exactly a seamless like-for-like experience for those who just want the basics.
To use the catch-up services, requires signing into BBB, C4 and C5 also.
You will need to login via national identify whereby it can monitor your location, verify whether or not you have a tv licence and all other things going with current digital footprints.